How does 538 aggregate polling?

By Forinfos - 25/04/2025 - 0 comments

FiveThirtyEight, the statistics-driven website run by Nate Silver, aggregates polls by weighting them individually using his own formula that considers the sample size and the track record of the various polls with regards to accuracy. It also uses a 30-day half-life when weighing polls by date.

In addition, Silver considers the voting history of any given district in making election forecasts. He also draws in polls from similar states or districts, and also calculates a regression for each state. The 538 website was the most successful at predicting the outcomes of the 2012 national and state elections, with the lowest average miss and bias.

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